The Role of Dumb Luck (As a Coach)

One of the most important things a coach can develop is the ability to stay open to dumb luck.

Not just acknowledge it—actively make space for it. Because some of the best breakthroughs I’ve seen in players didn’t come from my brilliant coaching. They came from random events, injuries, weird experiments, and moments I never would have planned or even thought to try.

Two Recent Examples from My Own Sons

My eldest son hurt his left arm on a school trip. He’s naturally ambidextrous, so he started messing around pitching with his right arm. What began as “I guess I’ll try the other side” has turned into a genuine blessing for his development. Nothing I planned. Nothing I would have pushed him toward on my own.

My second son also had an arm injury. He’s not ambidextrous. One day he just decided to start hitting with one hand. I’d been working on related concepts for months with limited success. Suddenly, because of the injury and his own experimentation, he’s doing things I was trying to coach — and doing them better than when I was directing him. The one-handed bat drill (which is a known tool) unlocked something for him that my structured approach hadn’t.

In both cases, dumb luck + a kid’s natural problem-solving did the heavy lifting. My job was mostly to get out of the way and support what was emerging.

Why This Matters for Coaches

If you’re wrapped up in being the brilliant coach—the one with all the answers—you’ll miss these moments or, worse, try to claim credit for them. That impulse sullies the breakthrough and teaches the player the wrong lesson: that progress always comes from external expertise instead of their own creativity and resilience.

Staying open to dumb luck does a few important things:

• It keeps you humble.

• It protects the player’s ownership of their development.

• It makes you a better coach because you’re paying attention to what’s actually working instead of forcing your plan.

The best coaching often looks like creating a rich environment, setting good constraints, and then having the wisdom to recognize when luck is handing you something better than you designed.

Baseball has a way of reminding us we’re not as smart as we think we are. The coaches who accept that reality tend to help more kids in the long run.

Because sometimes the best thing you can do is smile, shut up, and let dumb luck do its thing.